Argentina in 2010

Argentina in 2010

Area: 2,780,403 sq km (1,073,520 sq mi)
Population (2010 est.): 40,666,000
Capital: Buenos Aires
Head of state: President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner

In 2010 Argentine Pres. Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and her spouse, former president Néstor Kirchner (2003–07), consolidated their grip on power in the run-up to the 2011 presidential election. While the Peronist Kirchners’ prospects for victory in 2011 increased as the year progressed, the anti-Kirchner Peronist and non-Peronist political opposition often found itself on the defensive as well as increasingly fragmented and subject to internecine feuds.

The year began with President Fernández de Kirchner’s attempt to pay foreign debt by using international reserves held by the nominally autonomous Argentine Central Bank. After a series of moves and countermoves, the gambit was ultimately successful but resulted in the dismissal of the Central Bank president, Martín Redrado, as well as further weakened confidence in the country’s institutions.

Additional achievements, including a popular bicentennial celebration held in May and the passage in July of Latin America’s first law legalizing same-sex marriage, helped to boost the Kirchners’ approval ratings modestly during 2010. Another accomplishment was a successful debt swap with two-thirds of the “holdout” creditors who had rejected Argentina’s 2005 restructuring of debt upon which the country had defaulted in 2001. This swap, combined with that of 2005, ensured that more than 90% of the original bondholders had participated in a restructuring agreement. In addition, Argentina resolved its five-year dispute with Uruguay over the construction and subsequent operation of the pulp mill on the Uruguay River in Fray Bentos, Uruguay, across from the Argentine city of Gualeguaychú.

The 2011 presidential campaign began in earnest in 2010, with the political system divided roughly into three main sectors. It became clear that either Néstor Kirchner or, less likely, President Fernández de Kirchner would be the candidate of the governing Front for Victory. On October 27, however, Néstor Kirchner who had served as the country’s principal power broker during his wife’s presidency, suffered a fatal heart attack. It was uncertain whether President Fernández de Kirchner would press ahead with her candidacy or pass the baton to another.

A second sector, composed of anti-Kirchner Peronists (Federal Peronism), spent much of the year attempting to persuade Sen. Carlos Reutemann to be their standard-bearer. At the end of the year, they were still awaiting a response, with several less-viable candidates waiting in the wings in the event of a Reutemann declination.

The final sector consisted of non-Peronists of the Civic and Social Agreement (ACyS) alliance, which comprised the Radical Civic Union (UCR), the Civic Coalition (CC), and the Socialist Party. The front-runners for the ACyS candidacy, both of the UCR, were Vice Pres. Julio Cobos (whose relationship with the Kirchners had been toxic since 2008, when his tie-breaking vote torpedoed agricultural-reform legislation that they supported) and Ricardo Alfonsín (son of former president Raúl Alfonsín [1983–89]). A wild card was CC leader Elisa Carrió, whose relationship with her alliance partners worsened during 2010 and who announced her candidacy in December. That month Fernández de Kirchner’s leadership was further tested by encounters between immigrant squatters and citizens of Buenos Aires.

Argentina enjoyed robust GDP growth (projected at 7%) but experienced its highest rate of inflation since the 2002 currency devaluation; private consultants projected an inflation rate of 25% to 30% for 2010. The national statistics institute, INDEC, continued to operate under government intervention. INDEC’s inflation estimates were considered politically driven and impossibly low by most neutral observers and even by many government allies.

BY: Mark P. Jones