Argentina in 2009

Argentina in 2009

Area: 2,780,403 sq km (1,073,520 sq mi)
Population (2009 est.): 40,276,000
Capital: Buenos Aires
Head of state: President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner

Argentine Pres. Cristina Fernández de Kirchner began 2009 with low public approval ratings, rising dissent within her governing Peronist movement, and serious economic difficulties stemming from a combination of the global recession and her government’s mismanagement of economic policy. In the face of this growing crisis, in March Fernández de Kirchner unexpectedly reformed the electoral law in order to set June 28 as the date for midterm congressional elections (previously scheduled for October) in which one-half of the seats in the Chamber of Deputies (127 of 257) and one-third of the seats in the Senate (24 of 72) were to be elected.

The marquee battle on June 28 was in the province of Buenos Aires. Fernández de Kirchner’s spouse, former president Néstor Kirchner (who after leaving office in 2007 continued to be the country’s de facto political leader), squared off against dissident Peronist Francisco de Narváez as well as a non-Peronist opposition alliance led by Margarita Stolbizer. The Chamber list headed by Kirchner utilized copious amounts of government resources to support its campaign. The independently wealthy de Narváez matched Kirchner’s campaign spending to a considerable extent, while Stolbizer’s impoverished campaign struggled to gain traction among voters.

On June 28 the Kirchners suffered a severe rebuke at the polls. In the province of Buenos Aires, the government’s list, headed by Néstor Kirchner, finished second to that of de Narváez (32% to 35%). In the federal capital district, the Kirchners’ list placed fourth (12% of the vote), while in Santa Fe and Córdoba, the country’s two other large provinces, the Kirchners’ Chamber lists came in third (10%) and fourth (9%), respectively, behind dissident Peronist lists. These four districts jointly accounted for 62% of the population, and the Kirchners failed to achieve victory in a single one.

Overall, government supporters won 47 and 8 seats in the Chamber and Senate, respectively. When the renewed Chamber and Senate were constituted on December 10, the Kirchners possessed a Chamber delegation of only 87 members (plus approximately 20 allies) and a Senate delegation of 32 members (plus approximately 5 allies). The days in which the Kirchners could rely on a disciplined legislative majority to obediently approve their legislative initiatives were clearly in the past.

While many hoped that the Kirchners’ electoral defeat would lead them to adopt a more consensual governance style, to the contrary the Kirchners ratcheted up their level of conflict and antagonism with a host of groups, including the principal agricultural organizations, the major media companies, the non-Peronist opposition, and dissident Peronists. In addition, immediately following the election, Health Minister Graciela Ocaña resigned, and several Cabinet moderates, in particular Cabinet Chief Sergio Massa, were replaced.

After experiencing six straight years of robust economic growth, in 2009 the Argentine economy shrank by 3%. While the government’s continued intervention of the national statistics agency and fraudulent manipulation of economic indicators rendered the official inflation rate unreliable, private estimates suggested that inflation in 2009 was a comparatively high 15%.

Mark P. Jones